Luna Price Prediction — Bullish Or Bearish?

The Luna 2.0 has been the controversial topic in crypto space, recently.

Just after the voting proposal for the creation of the new Luna blockchain as a revival plan for the Luna ecosystem, it happened that 65% of the total votes were (Yes).

Hence, many people are now anticipating the launch of Luna 2.0 thus; most people are eager to know the possible Luna price prediction.

In this article, I will be walking you through an analysis of the Luna revival plan and how it would affect the market price of the anticipated new token (Luna 2.0) — to get a probable Luna price prediction.

But before then, let me quickly give a brief answer to the question "what is Luna 2.0" — as many people are yet to understand what the new Luna chain is all about.

What Is Luna 2.0?

Luna 2.0 as its name implies; is the new version of the old Luna ecosystem.

Before I can explain more about what Luna 2.0 is, it's imperative to know about the old version and what brought up the idea or decision to create a new version.

Luna is a blockchain network named "Terra network", it was created by Terra Labs – which has its founder "Do Kwon" in South Korea.

The Terra blockchain network has two tokens which are "Luna" and "UST". However, one of the purposes it was created is to enable arbitraging opportunities while trading against these two tokens.

UST was created as a stable coin, which means it's pegged to $1, hence; its value is always expected to be worth $1.

But then, it's an algorithmic stablecoin, so it doesn't have fiat currency (dollars) reserve as a backup; instead, it's backed by Luna token and other crypto assets.

UST was programmed to always be pegged to $1 when Luna token is burnt (destroyed) to mint (create) more UST.

Due to suggested manipulation that was circulating through the Twitter community, the UST began to lose its peg against $1 while more Luna tokens were being printed to revive the de-pegging of UST — but failed to revive, unfortunately.

As more Luna was being created, the market value of Luna began to drop from its ATH (All-Time-High) of $119 to almost $0. Likewise, UST that was supposed to be pegged to $1 has dropped drastically to $0.03.

This crisis has caused most people to panic and of course, has shaken the crypto space — as many people lost huge amounts of funds due to this issue.

However, most people were requesting for buyback of Luna to retain its previous price ($119) since all effort that's put to revive UST has been in vain.

The Terra foundation rejected to employ this idea and propose a new chain creation as a revival plan, but while most of the community is not in support of this plan — the (YES) votes on this revival plan have surpassed that of other options, thus; the creation of new chain (Luna 2.0) was approved on May 25 to launch on 27th of May.

The old token is now Luna classic (LUNC).

Luna Price Prediction

Before we can assume Luna 2.0 price prediction, let's analyze the community sentiment toward Luna 2.0, Terra luna airdrop, and Luna airdrop calculator.

We couldn't agree more — that, the community is everything in the crypto space

As I mentioned above, most of the community – is against the hard fork (but then, it isn't a "hard fork").

The Terra foundation made it clear – with this tweet.

That's; Luna 2.0 is a new chain that doesn't share the previous history with the old chain.

Terra Luna Airdrop

Now that the old chain has been abandoned, the old Luna & UST holders; after and before the crashes — will be getting the new token (Luna 2.0) as an airdrop according to the airdrop snapshot.

Some people might say they will dump immediately after they got the Terra luna airdrop — so let's check out:

Luna Classic (old token) & UST holders before the crashes – were tagged "Pre-attacked" while those after the crashes as "Post Attack".

Compared with holders after the crashes, holders before the crashes are in a huge loss.

Before we jump into the Luna 2.0 price prediction, let's get the details of the Luna airdrop calculator.

Luna Airdrop Calculator

According to the Terra Luna airdrop plan, Luna 2.0 airdrop to Pre-attack Luna holder is in a ratio of 1:1 while Pre-attack UST investors in a ratio of 1:0:033.

That's; if you have 1000 UST before the crash — which was supposed to be valued at $1000 but has now dropped drastically, you would get 13 Luna 2.0 tokens – as an airdrop.

In contrast, Post-attack Luna holders (those that bought after the crash) would be getting the airdrop in a ratio of 1:0.000015 while post-attack UST holders would be getting in a ratio of 1:0:0013

So about the post-attack Luna and UST holders, that's; those that have been holding after the crash.

If someone bought after the crash and has 100000 LUNA, he/she would be getting a 1.5 Luna 2.0 token while someone that bought UST after the crash and has 100 UST – would be getting a 1.3 Luna 2.0 token.

These Luna airdrop calculators have given us more details on what to expect, so let's approach the Luna price prediction while utilizing the Luna airdrop calculator.

Luna 2.0 Price Prediction

Let's analyze the Luna price – in the preattack holder case scenario.

Someone that bought the Luna token before the crash at $100 with $10,000 will be getting 100 Luna tokens.

Therefore, the total supply for the new token is capped at 1 billion Luna. Probably, the listing price would be $1 - $5, making the market capitalization $1b - $5b.

According to the airdrop ratio, the holders before the crash will get 1 new token for the old Luna they're holding.

So someone that acquired 100 units of the old Luna when it was $100 - which the value is equal to $10,000 will now be getting 100 of the new token (Luna 2.0), which would be valued at $100 - $500.

Likewise, UST holders before the crash that have 100 UST which were supposed to be $100 but have gone down to zero now, that person will now be getting 1.3 new Luna — which is equal to $1.3 - $6.5 (according to the aforementioned predicted price of $1 - $5).

That's the same if it was calculated for those bought after the crash — they will be getting a less value compared with when they bought.

The new token must reach a $50 market price before reattack holders (old chain token holders) could get their capital back.

Hence, there might be a bullish move.

Conclusion

There might be a bullish move on the new Luna token because the Terra Luna airdrop beneficiary will only be getting 30% of the total airdrop at the launch of the new chain while the remaining will be on a 2 year vesting period.